EN EN

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Brussels, 3.7.2026 COM(2026) 365 final

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND

THE COUNCIL

Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2027-2034)

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Table of Contents

1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1

2. Forecast of outflows of the EU budget 2027-2034 .......................................................................................................... 1

2.1. Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF ........................................................... 3

2.2. Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2028-2034 MFF ........................................................... 4

2.3. Decommitments ........................................................................................................................................................................... 5

2.4. Evolution of the level of outstanding commitments ............................................................................................. 6

3. Forecast of inflows of the EU budget 2027-2034 ............................................................................................................. 6

3.1. Revenue sources .......................................................................................................................................................................... 7

4. Conclusions .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9

Annex II – Results of the forecast ......................................................................................................................................................................... 10

Table 1.1 – Long-term forecast of future outflows over 2027-2034 for the MFF............................................................... 10

Table 1.2 – Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF .................................................................... 11

Table 1.3 – Payments for the completion of pre-2021 commitments ......................................................................................... 12

Table 1.4 – Payments for 2028-2034 commitments .............................................................................................................................. 13

Table 2 – Forecast decommitments 2027-2034........................................................................................................................................ 14

Table 3 – Outstanding commitments 2027-2034 ..................................................................................................................................... 15

Table 4 – Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget of 2027 and 2028-2034 MFF ............................ 16

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1. Introduction

This report projects the inflows and outflows of the EU budget in accordance with Article 253(1)(c) of the Financial

Regulationi. This sixthii edition forecasts the revenue and expenditure stemming from the Multiannual Financial

Framework (MFF) 2021-2027iii, and the 2028-2034 MFF based on the Commission’s proposal for the next MFFiv for

payments on 2028-2034 commitments.

On the expenditure side, the report forecasts payments arising from commitments entered into under the current

and previous MFFs, including the stock of outstanding commitments (RAL) expected at the end of 2027. As in last

year’s report, it also projects payments related to commitments that would be entered into under the 2028-2034

MFF on the basis of the Commission proposal for the next MFF.

Revenue for 2027 is based on the draft budget 2027. Revenue as of 2028 is forecast based on the 2025

Commission proposal for a new Own Resources Decisionv. The revenue projections also consider the Agreement on

the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the

European Atomic Energy Communityvi (‘Withdrawal Agreement’).

The estimates for payments presented in this report are based on the revised expenditure ceilings (technical

adjustment of the MFF for 2027)vii and the commitment appropriations included in the draft budget for 2027viii,

which incorporates the programme-specific adjustments under Article 5 of the MFF Regulationix (MFFR)x as well as

re-use of decommitments under Article 15(3)xi of the Financial Regulation.

As regards NextGenerationEU, all net borrowing to finance new disbursements will be completed by the end of

2026. Subsequently, only minor amounts, mainly for administrative expenditure will be made. NextGenerationEU

disbursements fall outside of the scope of this report, which covers the period as of 2027.

2. Forecast of outflows of the EU budget

2027-2034

Over the period 2027-2034, payments are estimated at EUR 2 173 billionxii. The estimated annual average of

outflows of the EU budget is EUR 272 billion.

They are composed of:

• Payments on commitments made in the MFF 2021-2027 and earlier MFFs

Payments on commitments made in the MFF 2021-2027 are paid partly in 2027 and partly in the MFF 2028-2034, for an

estimated total of EUR 527 billion, or EUR 75.3 billion on average for 2027-2033. Around 40% of those payments, i.e.

EUR 210 billion are expected in 2027 in line with the draft budget proposal. The remaining EUR 317 billion is projected to

be paid mostly in the first 3 years of the new MFF. This is consistent with past implementation patterns as the

programmes (notably cohesion policy) are reaching cruising speed. The payments on outstanding commitments stemming

from MFFs prior to 2021-2027 are estimated at EUR 5.9 billion, or EUR 0.8 billion on average for 2027-2033. They are

expected to decrease and be phased out by end 2033.

• Payments on commitments for the MFF 2028-2034

As per the Commission proposal for the MFF 2028-2034 of July 2025 and last year’s report, payments on

commitments made in the MFF 2028-2034 are on average EUR 234 billion per year, totalling EUR 1 641 billion

over the period. Payments are overall rather frontloaded to the first half of the 7-year period as the new

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programmes are expected to have a quicker implementation pattern. As explained in last’ year report, the

frontloading is the result of measures proposed to facilitate a timely start and a smoother implementation profile,

resulting in a more even pattern of payments over the period.

Chart 1 - Payments forecast by category

Compared with the estimates underpinning the Commission proposal of July 2025, the current forecast indicates a

lower level of payments by EUR 18 billion linked to changes in RAL payments (i.e. payments on commitments

entered into before 2028). This difference is mainly driven by the acceleration of payments under the 2021-2027

cohesion policy in 2026 and 2027, which reduces the stock of outstanding commitments expected at the end of the

current MFF and, consequently, the level of payments on pre-2028 commitments required during the 2028-2034

period.

The proposed payment ceiling for the 2028-2034 MFF remains sufficient to cover overall the payment needs

currently forecast over the period, with some variations across years. Under the current assumptions, payments may

exceed the annual ceilings in 2030 (EUR 14 billion), 2032 (EUR 6 billion) and 2033 (EUR 4 billion). Payments would

be below the ceilings in years 2028 (EUR 4 billion), 2029 (EUR 17 billion), and 2031 (EUR 21 billion). To ensure that

the payment ceiling is respected in each year of the MFF, the use of the mechanisms provided for in the MFF

Regulation to adjust annual payment ceiling levels may be required.

The resulting difference between the overall current payment forecast and the proposed MFF payment ceilings

should, however, be interpreted with caution. While the forecast for payments on existing commitments benefits

from more recent implementation data, the payment profile of programmes under the future MFF is subject to the

outcome of the ongoing negotiations. Changes to the overall size and composition of the MFF may affect the timing

and level of future payment needs.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034

Pre-2021 commitments 2021-2027 commitments 2028-2034 commitments

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Chart 2 - Payments forecast compared to MFF payment ceiling for the period 2027-2034

2.1. Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF

Cohesion and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) represent more than half of the projected payments stemming

from the 2021-2027 MFF.

Heading 2a - Cohesion policy

The implementation of cohesion policy funds is accelerating compared to last long-term payment forecast reportxiii.

The reinforcement for cohesion policy in 2026xiv (EUR 3.4 billion for the European Regional Development Fund, EUR

0.6 billion for the Cohesion Fund, EUR 1.4 billion for the European Social Fund Plus) requires additional funding to

cover the higher payment claims.

This acceleration is the result of Member States submitting in 2025 payment applications well beyond the n+3

decommitment rule, driven by the flexibilities and financial incentives provided to Member States as part of the mid-

term review of cohesion policy and the Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) Regulation. This has

increased the pressure on the 2026 budget (as reflected in the proposal for a draft amending budget 2/2026). This

acceleration is forecast to continue in 2027 and 2028. The 2027 and 2028 forecast assumes that the submission of

payment claims would align with the historical profile in the coming years, leading to disbursement of about 18% of the

funds’ allocations in 2027, and to around 50% of the total allocations to be paid out from 2028 onwards.

Heading 3 - Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Just Transition Fund

The payments forecast for Pillar I of the CAP, market-related expenditure and direct payments, amounts to

EUR 40.6 billion in 2027, reflecting the most recent draft budget.

The implementation of Pillar II under the CAP strategic plans – the European Agricultural Fund for Rural

Development (EAFRD) – began in 2023. The transitional provisions extending the 2014-2020 programmes until

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

330

2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034

Payment needs Payment ceiling incl. special instruments

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2022 enabling their continued implementation under the n+3 rule provided one more year to complete payments

compared to the rules for the 2023-2027 CAP strategic plans, which are subject to the N+2 rule.

The forecast of payments stemming from the MFF 2021-2027 includes payments from the 2023-2027 CAP

Strategic Plans as well as those linked to the extension of the rural development programmes to 2021 and 2022,

which will be completed by 2027. The forecast also considers the transfers between pillars of the Common

Agricultural Policy communicated by Member Statesxv, which resulted in a net transfer of EUR 5.5 billion from Pillar I

(EAGF) to Pillar II (EAFRD) for the years 2023-2027.

The implementation of the 2023-2027 CAP plans is expected to reach its peak in 2028 with lower payments in

2029 and later in 2030, and closure expected in 2031. The completion of the 2014-2022 operational rural

development programme and the latest payments are expected in 2027.

For the Just Transition Fund, payments to date have been predominantly financed under its NextGenerationEU

component, which will be used until the end of 2026, in line with legal deadlines. The first substantial payments

under the MFF component are expected from 2026 onwards.

Other programmes and headings

The Ukraine Reserve, a special instrument that mobilises support for expenditure over and above the MFF

expenditure ceilings for 2024-2027, is foreseen to conclude most payments by end-2027. EUR 0.9 billion would be

covered in the 2028-2034 MFF as payments on outstanding commitments.

2.2. Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2028-2034 MFF

The payments for the 2028-2034 MFF are forecast at EUR 1 641 billion over the period, covering over 80% of the MFF.

Taking into account that the negotiations on the next MFF are ongoing, the data presented in the section are based on the

Commission proposal of July 2025 and are as such the same as in last year’s report.

Heading 1 – Economic, social and territorial cohesion, agriculture, rural and

maritime prosperity and security

The main driver of the payments profile in the 2028-2034 MFF will be the National and Regional Partnership Plans

with a total EUR 965 billion forecast payments for the heading overall.

As of 2028, the EU is due to start the repayment of the debt issued under NextGenerationEU. For the MFF 2028-

2034, the Commission proposes a fixed amount of EUR 24 billion per year in current prices for the repayment of

interest and capital of the non-repayable support provided under NextGenerationEU. This means an overall amount

of EUR 168 billion over 2028-2034.

The remaining payments in relation to this heading are mostly for decentralised agencies (such as Frontex and

Europol) where the EU payments are made in full in the same year as the subsidy to the agency is committed.

Heading 2 – Competitiveness, prosperity and security

Payments under heading 2 total EUR 424 billion. Payments are mainly driven by the European Competitiveness

Fund and Horizon Europe.

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Heading 3 – Global Europe

Payments under heading 3 total EUR 135 billion. Payments are mainly driven by Global Europe.

Special instruments

Special instruments fall under two categories:

Thematic instrument (Ukraine) – The Ukraine Reserve will be a thematic special instrument (EUR 100 billion) to

allow the Union to finance Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction efforts as well as supporting the country’s

accession path via pre-accession assistance. All support to Ukraine will be channelled and implemented through

Global Europe. The MFF Regulation foresees that the annual amount mobilised under the Ukraine Reserve in a given

year shall not exceed EUR 13.5 billion in 2025 prices. On 24 February 2026, the a Regulationxvi establishing a EUR

90 billion Ukraine support loan was adopted. On 23 May 2026, the 2021-2027 MFF Regulation was amended to

allow the financial backing of this loan under the EU budget headroom, over and above the MFF ceilings, as well as

to create a special instrument for the financing of the interest rate subsidy provided by the Union to Ukraine for the

loan. This expenditure and the related contingent liabilities, to be covered under the EU budget headroom, is not

included in the EUR 100 billion Ukraine Reserve proposed in July 2025.

Non-thematic instruments – allocating additional amounts for specific MFF programmes subject to specific

conditions. Their mobilisation and the subsequent payment needs cannot be forecast. For the Flexibility Instrument,

the MFF Regulation for 2028-2034 foresees at minimum an annual fixed amount of EUR 2 000 million in 2025

prices.

The expenditure covered by the mobilisation of special instruments is counted in addition to the MFF ceilings and is

excluded for the purpose of establishing the margins for commitments and payments. Due to their nature and since

they are subject to decisions of the budgetary authority on annual basis, the amounts for 2028-2034 presented in

this report do not account for the mobilisation of these special instruments.

2.3. Decommitments

The forecast of decommitments stemming from programmes under the current and prior MFFs until end-2034

stands at EUR 11 billion. It is substantially driven by the cohesion programmes under the current MFF and the

European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD).

The MFF 2028-2034 proposes substantive changes to the delivery modes aimed at simplifying and accelerating

implementation, leading to a full take up of the commitments in the next MFF. Therefore, no specific decommitment forecast

is assumed for programmes under the next MFF.

Heading 2a – Cohesion policy

Considering the latest available information, decommitments for the completion of the programmes 2014-2020

have increased compared to last year’s report from EUR 0.5 billion to EUR 1.6 billion. Overall, the risk of

decommitments at the end of 2027 for the programmes 2021-2027 is low thanks to accelerated implementation,

and additional pre-financing stemming from the mid-term review of cohesion policy. In 2025 and 2026, Member

States have submitted payment applications exceeding the n+3 decommitment rule, and this trend is expected to

continue in 2027. However, EUR 0.4 billion of decommitments are expected at closure, in line with implementation

patterns of the previous programming period.

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Heading 3 - Common Agricultural Policy

The forecast of decommitments from rural development programmes 2014-2022 has decreased compared to the last

forecast, from EUR 3.1 billion to EUR 1.5 billion expected in 2027. Earlier decommitments amounted to EUR 0.3 billion. Overall,

decommitments under EAFRD for the 2014-2022 programmes are now estimated at 1.5% of the total allocation, noting an

improvement compared to the 2007-2013 rural development programmes where the share of decommitments stood at 2%.

As regards the timing, decommitments are expected by end-2027 when the closure of payments will be processed.

At present, an amount of EUR 1 billion is expected to be decommitted under the 2023-2027 CAP Strategic Plans.

Those decommitments are expected to take place between 2026 and 2030.

Other programmes and headings

For the programmes directly or indirectly managed by the Commission, the decommitment forecast is built on the

latest project-level information. The projections for the decommitments related to the MFF 2021-2027 programmes

are presented in table 2. They are consistent with the estimates from the payment schedules. However, the precise

year of decommitment cannot be forecast with precision, as it depends on the closure of individual projects and

actions.

2.4. Evolution of the level of outstanding commitments

The next MFF is expected to start with EUR 321 billion RALxvii, which is a decrease of EUR 18 billion compared to last year’s

forecast (EUR 339 billion). This result is mostly driven by the revised expectations for cohesion policy programmes and

increased payments in 2026-2027. The expected lower RAL at the start of the next MFF is directly translated in the

corresponding lower forecast of payments for the completion of pre-2028 programmes in the next MFF.

NextGenerationEU RAL will be absorbed by end-2026 when all the payments will be completed, except for small

amounts mainly linked to administrative expenditure.

Although the RAL is projected to increase in nominal terms from EUR 321 billion at the start of the MFF to EUR 344

billion at the end of 2034, its relative weight in the EU economy and in relation to the size of the MFF is expected to

decline. The RAL would decrease from 1.6% of EU GNI at the end of 2027 to 1.3% at the end of 2034 and represent

around one fifth of the 2028-2034 MFF, a lower ratio than projected for the current MFF. This points to a more

contained stock of outstanding commitments than under previous programming periods and a reduced

concentration of payments beyond the end of the MFF. The projected development reflects both the stronger

implementation observed towards the end of the current MFF and the implementation features proposed for the

2028-2034 MFF, which are expected to lead to a timelier execution of programmes and a lower accumulation of

outstanding commitments over time.

3. Forecast of inflows of the EU budget

2027-2034

For 2027, revenue is based on the draft budget 2027. Revenue as of 2028 remains as forecast in last year’s report

as they reflect the Commission proposal for a new Own Resources Decision, which is currently negotiated. The

residual GNI own resource estimate is mechanically adjusted to ensure an overall balance with the forecast

payments, which have been updated for the completion of pre-2028 programmes.

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The EU budget is financed by own resources and other revenue. In addition, the Union is empowered to borrow funds

to finance NextGenerationEU, which are channelled into the budget through external assigned revenue – with the net

borrowing ending in 2026.

The own resources needed to finance the budget are determined by total expenditure less ‘other revenue’. The forecast of

the EU budget revenue is based on the principle that expenditure must be matched by revenue; therefore, total revenue

equals total expenditure.

Since 2021, in line with the Withdrawal Agreement (part V), the United Kingdom contributes to the EU budget in relation to

outstanding commitments of previous financial frameworks. The United Kingdom’s contribution constitutes ‘other revenue’ of

the EU budget. It will progressively phase out as payments on outstanding commitments are made in the next MFF, as

presented in section 2.1. For 2028-2034, ‘other revenue’ includes the updated United Kingdom contribution.

Own resources – currently traditional own resources as well as VAT, plastics and GNI-based own resources – account

for most of the revenue needed to finance budget expenditure. The spending cycle determines the development of

Member States’ own resources contributions over the forecast period.

3.1. Revenue sources

For 2027 the revenues in this report reflect the draft budget 2027. For the next MFF, own resources are projected in

line with the Commission proposal of July 2025. As per the forecast accompanying the Commission proposal,

traditional own resources (customs duties) are projected to grow at the same rate as GNI in current prices of each

Member State starting from the level of gross customs duties projected for the draft budget 2026, using the

parameters of the new Own Resources Decision proposal for the next MFF.

Revenue from the VAT-based own resource is projected starting from the VAT bases of the individual Member States

included in the draft budget 2026. The VAT bases are projected to grow at the same rate as GNI in current prices.

The plastics-based own resource is projected starting from non-recycled plastic packaging waste included in the

draft budget 2026. The corresponding plastic packaging waste is projected to grow at the same rate as GNI in

constant prices. Recycling rates are projected to converge linearly towards the EU recycling target of 55%, which

must be achieved by 2030.

The GNI-based own resource for the EU-27 is calculated as the remaining difference between all other own

resources and other revenue on the one hand and the forecast expenditure on the other. The parameters for the

own resources specified in the Own Resources Decision determine the Member States’ share in the total amount of

own resources contributions that is needed to balance the EU budget.

The Commission proposal for an Own Resources Decision includes several additional own resources.

The revenue forecast for the own resource based on the European Emission Trading System (ETS1) is based on an

assumed carbon price of EUR 88.33 in 2025 prices. The number of auctioned emission allowances is derived from

the legal provisions in the ETS Directivexviii.

Regarding the own resource based on e-waste, first the underlying non-collected waste of electrical and electronic

equipment (WEEE) in a Member State in a given year is calculated. Then, collection rates are projected to converge

linearly towards the EU collection target of 65% by 2034.

Revenue from the Tobacco Excise Duty Own Resource is projected based on the Tobacco Excise Duty Directive and

its proposed recast.

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Revenue from the own resource based on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is projected assuming

the same carbon price as for ETS1.

The projections for the Corporate Resource for Europe (CORE) are based on 2023 firm-level data from the Orbis

database. An annual lump-sum contribution from all companies that operate and sell in the EU is applied as

specified in the Commission proposal for a new Own Resources Decision.

Other revenue of the EU budget includes staff contributions, revenue accruing from the administrative operation of

the institutions, contributions and refunds in connection with Union agreements and programmes, interest on late

payments and fines, revenue from borrowing and lending operations, revenue from fees not assigned to specific

expenditure, and miscellaneous revenue – as well as surpluses from previous years. Given their inherent volatility,

most of these components are difficult to forecast in the long run. Therefore, the annual amount included in the

Commission proposal for the next MFF of July 2025 (i.e. EUR 3 billion) is assumed to remain nominally constant over

the forecast period.

Since 2021, in addition to the above-mentioned items, other revenue of the EU budget includes the United

Kingdom’s contribution related to outstanding commitments (RAL) for which the United Kingdom is liable, pension

obligations and other components of the financial settlement, as laid down in the Withdrawal Agreement xix. This is

also reflected in the proposed financing of the draft budget 2027.

The contribution of the United Kingdom related to outstanding commitments on 31 December 2020 is determined

by applying the United Kingdom’s financing share to the forecast RAL payments for each year of the 2027-2034

period. The resulting annual contribution takes into account the payment modalities set out in Article 148 of the

Withdrawal Agreement.

The forecast of other revenue includes the United Kingdom’s contribution to pension liabilities for Members and EU

high-level public office holders as specified in Article 142(5) of the Withdrawal Agreement. The United Kingdom

contribution to staff pensions (an estimated EUR 351 million in the draft budget 2027) enters the EU budget as

external assigned revenue and is therefore not part of the long-term forecast of other revenue.

In any given year, the total own resources collected by the Union may not exceed the own resources ceiling set in

the Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053 of 1.4% of EU-27 GNI, with an additional temporary increase of 0.6%

of EU GNI for covering all liabilities of the Union from the borrowing on the capital markets to fund

NextGenerationEU.

The proposed new Own Resources Decision sets the own resources ceilings for the period 2028-2034 as follows:

• 1.75% for the permanent ceiling.

• 0.6% for the ceiling covering all liabilities of the Union from the borrowing on the capital markets to fund

NextGenerationEU.

• 0.25% for the crisis instrument, in case of activation.

The available margin under the permanent own resources celling (so-called headroom) is expected to decline as

payments are expected to increase in 2027 compared to 2026, while the Union’s gross national income is expected

to increase proportionally less over the same year. The margin under the permanent own resources ceiling in 2027

will be around EUR 84 billion.

For 2028-2034, the margin under the new permanent ceiling proposed by the Commission is estimated at EUR 155

billion per year on average and the margin under the NGEU temporary ceiling at EUR 116 billion on average. This

reflects updates in the forecast EU GNI for the Spring 2026 economic forecast, the updated needs for pre-2028 RAL

payments and the minimal update in non-own resources payments linked to the UK contribution under the

Withdrawal Agreement.

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For both the permanent and NGEU temporary own resources ceiling, the margin represents the free space below

those ceilings after taking into account the own resources needed to finance the EU budget expenditures, and for

the temporary ceilings – the own resources to cover the costs for NextGenerationEU interest coverage and

repayments (as of 2028). This headroom is needed to cover additional outflows related to the possible

materialisation of contingent liabilities and possible additional payment appropriations. Compared to the

Commission Proposal for the next MFF in July 2025, there are additional contingent liabilities due to the Ukraine

Support Loan which need to be covered via the headroom (i.e. the principal amount of EUR 90 billion and the

associated financing costs).

4. Conclusions

The forecast confirms that the payment ceiling proposed by the Commission for the 2028-2034 MFF remains

sufficient to cover the expenditure currently expected over the period.

Compared with the estimates underlying the Commission proposal of July 2025, the forecast for payments related

to commitments entered into before 2028 has been revised downwards. This reflects stronger implementation and

higher payment execution during the final years of the current MFF, resulting in a lower stock of outstanding

commitments at the end of 2027. The profile of payments stemming from pre-2028 commitments nevertheless

remains dependent on implementation developments in 2026 and 2027.

At the same time, the forecast for payments linked to programmes proposed under the 2028-2034 MFF continues

to be based on the Commission proposal of 2025. As negotiations on the future MFF are ongoing, parameters

affecting future payment needs remain subject to change.

The differences currently observed between the forecast level of payments and the proposed payment ceiling is

subject to change, as payment requirements under the next MFF cannot yet be fully established. The reduction in

estimated payments related to pre-2028 commitments reflects updated information on legacy needs, whereas the

payment profile of future programmes remains provisional.

The current forecast should therefore be regarded as an intermediate assessment based on the Commission

proposal and the information available at this stage.

The forecast also points to a more contained level of outstanding commitments relative to the size of the EU

economy and of the future MFF. This positive development reflects both the stronger implementation observed

towards the end of the current programming period and the implementation profile under the Commission proposal

for the MFF 2028-2034.

The revenue to finance the budget follows the MFF expenditure cycle. The proposed package of new own resources

is expected to reduce the burden on Member States’ VAT and GNI-based contributions.

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Annex II – Results of the forecast

All values are in billions of EUR, current prices, unless otherwise specified. Some totals may not tally due

to rounding.

Table 1.1 – Long-term forecast of future outflows over 2027-2034 for the MFF

Year 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 TOTAL

Commitment Ceiling 188.8 269.5 282.9283.1 290.4 294.1 285.4 279.72 173.7

Payment Ceiling 199.7 270.0 300.7 297.1 292.8 277.4 274.7 267.5 2 179.8

Commitments (programmed)*

199.9 269.5 282.9 283.1 290.4 294.1 285.4 279.7 2 184.8

Forecast Payments** 212.0 265.6 284.1 310.7 272.0 283.4 278.5 267.5 2 173.9

Of which Special Instruments***

12.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8

* In line with the draft budget for 2027 for year 2027, including the Ukraine Reserve allocation and appropriations stemming from Article 5 of the

MFF Regulation and Article 15(3) of the Financial Regulation and Article 15(3) of the Financial Regulation.

** The amounts for special instruments in 2027 cover the Solidarity and Emergency Aid Reserve, the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund, the

Brexit Adjustment Reserve, the Ukraine Reserve, the EURI Instrument, and the Flexibility Instrument. For subsequent years, only the payments on

outstanding commitments for the Flexibility Instrument and the Ukraine Reserve, including for the Ukraine Support Loan debt service cost, are

included. In the subsequent tables, the payments related to the mobilisations of special instruments are included within the respective headings.

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Table 1.2 – Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF

MFF Heading 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Total

1 Single Market,

Innovation and Digital 22.1 16.5 8.3 6.5 3.1 3.5 1.5 61.5

2 Cohesion, Resilience

and Values 81.8 69.0 57.9 53.4 5.1 0.9 0.4 268.5

2.1 Economic, Social and territorial cohesion

64.7 66.5 56.6 52.7 5.00.70.3 246.5

2.2 Resilience and Values 17.1 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.10.20.1 22.0

3 Natural Resources and

Environment 61.4 17.9 13.8 2.4 2.4 0.4 0.2 98.5

3.1 Market related expenditure and direct payments

40.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.00.00.0 40.9

3.2 Other programmes of Natural Resources and Environment

20.7 17.8 13.7 2.4 2.40.40.2 57.5

4 Migration and Border

Management 3.8 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.7 1.9 0.8 12.6

5 Security and Defence 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 8.5

6 Neighbourhood and the

World 16.0 12.7 11.1 6.3 3.4 2.8 1.2 53.4

7 European Public

Administration 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.7

O Outside the MFF

ceilings 7.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4

Special Instruments 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9

Total 210.3 121.7 94.5 70.9 15.6 9.8 4.2 527.0

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Table 1.3 – Payments for the completion of pre-2021 commitments

MFF Heading 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Total

1 Single Market,

Innovation and Digital 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.1

2 Cohesion, Resilience

and Values 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

2.1 Economic, Social

and territorial cohesion 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0

2.2 Resilience and

Values 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.1

3 Natural Resources and

Environment 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4

3.1 Market related

expenditure and direct

payments

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.2 Other programmes

of Natural Resources

and Environment

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.4

4 Migration and Border

Management 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

5 Security and Defence 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

6 Neighbourhood and the

World 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 3.1

Total 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.2 5.9

13

Table 1.4 – Payments for 2028-2034 commitments

MFF Heading 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Total

1. Economic, social and

territorial cohesion,

agriculture, rural and maritime prosperity and

security

108.0 122.6 150.8 150.7 157.8 144.3 130.3 964.6

2. Competitiveness,

prosperity and security 14.8 40.6 57.4 68.8 73.1 82.9 86.2 423.7

3. Global Europe 4.8 9.9 14.6 19.6 24.8 28.9 32.3 134.8

4. Administration 14.9 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.7 117.9

Total 142.6 188.7 239.0 256.0 273.2 274.1 267.5 1 641.0

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Table 2 – Forecast decommitments 2027-2034

MFF Heading Completion MFF 2021-

2027

Total

1 Single Market, Innovation and Digital 1.1 1.3 2.4

2 Cohesion, Resilience and Values 1.7 1.3 2.9

2.1 Economic, Social and territorial cohesion 1.6 0.4 2.0

2.2 Resilience and Values 0.1 0.9 0.9

3 Natural Resources and Environment 2.3 1.2 3.5

3.1 Market related expenditure and direct payments 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.2 Other programmes of Natural Resources and Environment

2.3 1.2 3.5

4 Migration and Border Management 0.6 0.0 0.6

5 Security and Defence 0.1 0.0 0.1

6 Neighbourhood and the World 0.3 1.0 1.3

Total 6.0 4.9 10.9

The forecast for decommitments does not distinguish between fund sources for decommitments.

15

Table 3 – Outstanding commitments 2027-2034

* The RAL at the start of 2028 excludes amounts generated from other fund sources or revenues and estimated decommitments.

Source RAL start-2028* Commitments

2028-2034

Payments 2028-

2034

RAL

end-2034

MFF 320.9 1984.9 1961.9 343.9

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Table 4 – Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget of 2027 and 2028-2034 MFF

INFLOWS 2027* 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Total

Own Resources ceiling in %

of EU Gross National

Income**

2.00% 2.35% 2.35% 2.35% 2.35% 2.35% 2.35% 2.35% n/a

Of which temporary increase for

NGEU 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% n/a

Own Resources ceiling

expressed in EUR billion A 403.8 493.0 511.4 530.1 548.0 566.1 584.2 602.3 n/a

Of which temporary increase for

NGEU A’ 121.2 125.9 130.6 135.3 139.9 144.5 149.1 153.8 n/a

Total own resources B 208.9 262.2 281.0 307.6 269.0 280.5 275.6 264.6 2149.4

Of which own resources to

finance NGEU liabilities B’ 9.9 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0

of which

Net amount of traditional own

resources***

25.0 34.5 35.7 36.8 38.0 39.2 40.4 41.6 291.3

VAT-based own resource 26.0 26.6 27.5 28.3 29.2 30.1 31.0 31.9 230.4

Plastic-based own resource 6.5 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 75.6

European Emission Trading

System-based own resource

(ETS1)

8.8 11.7 11.3 13.0 11.7 10.3 8.8 75.6

17

INFLOWS 2027* 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Total

E-waste-based own resource 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.4 118.0

Tobacco Excise Duty-based

own resource 13.0 12.7 12.4 12.8 12.5 12.2 12.7 88.3

Carbon Border Adjustment

Mechanism (CBAM)-based own

resource

0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.2 10.8

Corporate Resource for Europe

(CORE) 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 53.3

GNI-based own resource 151.4 145.5 159.1 183.7 140.1 150.3 144.4 131.6 1 205.9

Other revenue (incl. fees and

provisional UK contribution,

European Travel Information

and Authorisation System

(ETIAS) fee)

C 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 24.4

TOTAL REVENUE D=B

+C 212.0 265.6 284.1 310.7 272.0 283.4 278.5 267.5 2 173.9

Available margin under the

Own Resources ceiling A-B 194.9 230.7 230.4 222.5 279.0 285.6 308.5 337.8 n/a

of which margin under the

temporary increase for NGEU

A'-

B’ 111.2 101.9 106.6 111.3 115.9 120.5 125.1 129.8 n/a

* Corresponds to DB2027 figures, based on Own Resources Decision 2020.

** Own Resources ceiling – calculated based on the Spring 2026 economic forecast for the gross national income of the EU-27

*** Traditional own resources are estimated on the basis of a 10% retention rate for collection costs for 2028-2034.

18

i Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/2509 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 September 2024 on the

financial rules applicable to the general budget of the Union (recast), OJ L 2024/2559, 26.9.2024.

ii COM(2021)343, 30.6.2021. This is the first edition of this report for the 2021-27 MFF period.

iii Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/765 of 29 February 2024 amending Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2093

laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027, OJ L, 2024/765, 29.02.2024.

iv Proposal for a Council Regulation laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2028 to 2034.

COM/2025/571 final. 16.07.2025.

v Proposal for a COUNCIL DECISION on the system of own resources of the European Union and repealing Decision

(EU, Euratom) 2020/2053. COM(2025) 574 final. 16.07.2025.

vi OJ C66 I, 19.2.2019, p.1.

vii Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council – Technical adjustment of the

multiannual financial framework for 2027 in accordance with Article 4 of Council Regulation (EU, Euratom)

2020/2093 laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027. COM(2026) 299

viii Statement of estimates of the European Commission for the financial year 2027. SEC(2026) 250.

ix Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/765 of 29 February 2024 amending Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2093

laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027, OJ L, 2024/765, 29.02.2024.

x Article 5 of the MFF Regulation provides for the additional allocation in commitment and payment appropriations

for a pre-defined list of programmes, for an amount equivalent to certain types of fines.

xi Article 15(3) of the Financial Regulation provides that commitment appropriations corresponding to the amount of

de-commitments made in relation to research projects may be made available again.

xii Unless otherwise specified, all amounts in the report are expressed in current prices.

xiii Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council. Long-term forecast of future inflows

and outflows of the EU budget (2026-2034). COM(2025) 573 final. 16.07.2025.

xiv Draft amending budget no. 2 to the general budget 2026. Update of revenue (own resources) and adjustments to

expenditure. COM(2026) 460 final. 09.06.2026.

19

xv Member States decided to transfer funds between direct payments and rural development. The result was set out

in Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2026/1 of 1 December 2025 amending Regulation (EU) 2021/2115.

xvi Regulation (EU) 2026/467 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 24 February 2026 implementing

enhanced cooperation on the establishment of the Ukraine Support Loan for 2026 and 2027.

xvii This amount does not include decommitments and payments from other fund sources, such as assigned

revenues.

xviii Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 October 2003 establishing a scheme

for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community and amending Council Directive 96/61/EC

xix All components of the United Kingdom contribution are laid down in Article 148 of the Withdrawal Agreement. The

forecast only includes components which are quantifiable at this stage, namely the provisional United Kingdom

contribution to the financing of payments resulting from outstanding commitments prior to 2021 for which the

United Kingdom is liable under Article 140 and pension liabilities specified under Article 142.5 of the Withdrawal

Agreement as well as the amounts the Union owes to the United Kingdom under Article 145 (European Coal and

Steel Community) and Article 146 (Union investment in the EIF).