Kutse

Russia’s War Against Ukraine

- Trends and Lessons

12-13 FEB 2025

Program (Draft)

DAY 1 Wednesday 12 FEB 2025

08.00-08.30 Morning coffee

08.30-08.40 Day 1: Welcome and Admin remarks (Itälinnake)

Janne Pukkila (FNDU)

08.40-08.45 Opening words Mika Kalliomaa, Rector of FNDU

Keynote (Itälinnake) Janne Pukkila (FNDU)

09.00-09.30 The Russian military’s lessons learned from the Ukraine conflict: What should concern NATO?

Rod Thornton and Marina Miron (Defence Studies Department of King’s College, UK)

09.30-09.45 Panel

09.45-09.55 Break

SESSION I (Itälinnake) Military strategy and operational art

Katri Pynnöniemi (FNDU)

SESSION III (Riviera, 2nd floor) Russia’s relations in contemporary world

Michael R. Rouland (EUCOM RSI, USA)

09.55-10.35 Full scale invasion of Ukraine and lessons learned for NGW theory

Olexander Hryb (HQ JFC NATO, Brunssum, Netherlands )

09.55-10.25 Changing the International Cooperation Vector of Russia to Achieve Goals in the War with Ukraine.

Valerii Hordiichuk and Nina Andrianova (NDU, Ukraine)

10.35-11.15 AI-Augmented Analysis of Russia’s Self- Perceived Military Strengths and Weaknesses in the Russian-Ukrainian War (2022-...)

Stephan De Spiegeleire (The Hague Center for

Strategic Studies, Netherlands) and Adam Stulberg (Sam

Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA)

10.25-10.50 Tools and mechanisms of Russia's alliance- building strategy after the outbreak of war in Ukraine: major achievements and miscalculations.

Sergei Melkonian; (Research Fellow APRI Armenia)

10.50-11.15 The changing role of Russia in Central Asia Marzia Cimmino (FNDU)

11.15-11.45 Panel 11.15-11.45 Panel

11.45-12.15 Coffee break (30min) Coffee break (30min)

SESSION II (Itälinnake) Russian military thought

Pentti Forsström (FNDU) SESSION IV (Riviera, 2nd floor) Russia’s relations and resources

Juha-Matti Lehtonen (FNDU)

12.15-12.45 What is new in the proposed changes in Russia’s nuclear doctrine?

Kristina Melin (FOI, Sweden)

Russian economy on war footing - A new reality financed by commodity exports

Yuriy Gorodnichenko (University of California – Berkeley); Iikka Korhonen, (BOFIT, Bank of Finland); Elina Ribakova (Peterson Institute of International Economics and Kyiv School of Economics)

12.45-13.15 Russian Nuclear Deterrence Concept: Changes and Threats

Andrii Ivachenko and Tatiana Uvarova (NDU, Ukraine)

How Russian economy fuels its military capabilities?

Pakholchuk Vadym (Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine)

13.15-13.45 Panel Panel

13.45-14.30 Lunch (45min) Lunch (45min)

SESSION V (Itälinnake) Military strategy and operational art

Risto Kohonen (FNDU) SESSION VII (Riviera, 2nd floor) Russian military thought and strategies

Juha Kukkola (FNDU)

14.30-15.00 Key Lessons of Russia’s Ground Warfare in Ukraine

Leonid Nersisyan (APRI, Armenia)

Modern Methods of Hybrid Warfare in Russian Military Thought

Yevhenii Harkavyi (Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv)

15.00-15.30 Russia’s Post-Ukraine Land Force Reconstitution and Future Operational Concepts

Clint Reach (RAND, USA) Russia’s hybrid operations in the West and their news coverage

Kari Liuhto and Hanna Mäkinen (Pan-European Institute, University of Turku, Finland)

15.30-16.00 Russian Railways: A case study in civil- military relations

Maria Engqvist (FOI, Sweden)

Russia’s Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs) in Achieving Cognitive Dominance through Media (NO on-line streaming)

Kseniya Piddubna (JFC, Joint Force Command, Brunssum, NATO)

16.00-16.30 Panel Panel

16.30-17:00 Coffee (30min) Coffee (30min)

SESSION VI (Itälinnake) Military strategy and operational art

Sakari Soini (FNDU) SESSION VIII (Riviera, 2nd floor) Russia’s resources

Juha-Matti Lehtonen (FNDU)

17.00-17.30 Russian Military Strategy and Operational Art in the Black Sea War: Lessons from Experience, Theory Development, and Prospects. (ZOOM)

Stepan Yakymiak (Capt (Navy)(ret.), Ukraine)

Wartime expansion of Russian military- industrial complex – a new cornerstone of economy and the main driver of future conflicts?

Jussi Jalonen (Finnish Navy Command)

17.30 – 18.00 The War in the Black Sea –The character of naval warfare is undergoing a fundamental shift caused by drone technology

Tobias Kollakowski (German Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies, Germany)

Battling War Economies: Innovating and Adapting the Defence Industrial Base During Major Wars

Marc DeVore (University of St. Andrews, UK) and Kristen A. Harkness (University of St. Andrews / UK Foreign Office)

18.00-18.30 Panel Panel

18.35 Bus ride to the hotel

19.30-21:30 Dinner at the Marina Congress Center Marina Congress center, 2nd floor

DAY 2 THURSDAY 13 FEB 2025

08.30 – 08.45 Morning coffee

SESSION IX (Itälinnake) Military sosiology

Katri Pynnöniemi (FNDU)

SESSION X (Riviera, 2nd floor) Military sosiology

Jonna Alava (FNDU)

09-09.30 Russian and Ukrainian Approaches to Civil-Military Relations during Wartime: A Theoretical and Operational Perspective.

Fainberg, Sarah-Masha (Tel Aviv University (Israel) and Marangé Céline (Institute for Strategic Research, France)

”An Army with too many people and not enough soldiers”: Russian military manpower system in flux

Oona-Maaria Hyppölä, (FNDU)

09.30-1000 How have political and structural changes within the wartime Russian dictatorship since 2022 impacted civil-military relations?

Waller Julian Gordon, (Center for Naval Analyses; George Washington University, USA)

“Russia´s covert mobilisation: instruments, structures and risks for domestic stability”.

Margarete Klein (German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Germany)

10.00-10.30 Panel Panel

10.30-11.30 Lunch

SESSION XI (Itälinnake) Future prospects

Juha Kukkola (FNDU)

11.30-12.00 War Termination in the Russian-Ukraine War: Assessing Coercion Dynamics and Military Effectiveness

Finel Bernard (George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, Germany)

12.30-13.00

Military-Patriotic Education in Russia: From Lessons Learned to Future Prospects for Military Culture

Jonna Alava (FNDU/Helsinki University)

13.00-13.30 Where do Russia’s mobilized soldiers come from? Evidence from regional bank deposits

Solanko Laura (BOFIT, Bank of Finland)

13.30-14.00 Coffee

SESSION XII (Itälinnake) Future prospects

Juha Kukkola, Katri Pynnömiemi (FNDU)

14.00-14.45 Panel discussion on Russia’s future prospects, resources and status

Fainberg, Marangé, Waller, Hyppölä, Klein, Finel, Alava, Solanko (tbc)

14.45- Closing remarks Pasi Hirvonen (Chief of the Department of Warfare, FNDU)

15.00 End of the Russia Seminar 2025